Wallace model policy ineffectiveness proposition
Therefore, agents would not expend the effort or money required to become informed and government policy would remain effective. Studies in Business Cycle Theory.
Robert Lucas and his followers drew the attention to the conditions under which this inefficiency probably emerges. He weighs the value of taking a lower-paid job that might be easily available a machinist might become a day laborer against the value of a better-paid, more suitable job that is harder to find.
Similarly, when higher production requires new capital, it takes time to build it up.
Lucas argued that what is true of the Phillips curve in this example is true of the most important relationships in the econometric macroeconomic models used to evaluate economic policy. The role of government would therefore be limited to output stabilisation.
Policy ineffectiveness proposition graph
The Legacy of the New Classical Macroeconomics The new classicals profoundly changed the technical underpinnings of modern macroeconomics. This behavior by agents is contrary to that which is assumed by much of economics. Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice. Therefore, equilibrium in the economy would only be converged upon and never reached. Taylor assumed that workers sign nominal wage contracts that last for more than one period, making wages "sticky". How should economists analyze expectations? Consequently, even if monetary policy is ineffective in the long run, it may be of considerable use in the short run. Other Keynesian economists sought to explain consumption, investment, the demand for money, and other key elements of the aggregate Keynesian model in a manner consistent with the assumption that individuals behave optimally.
However, no systematic countercyclical monetary policy can be built on these conditions, since even monetary policy makers cannot foresee these shocks hitting economies, so no planned response is possible.
And when lower production renders existing capital redundant, it takes time to wear it out or use it up. They argued that an expansion of aggregate demand lowered unemployment only because the acceleration in prices was not anticipated.
Effectiveness of monetary policy
Revisions would only be made after the increase in the money supply has occurred, and even then agents would react only gradually. Firms maximize profits; people maximize utility. How should economists analyze expectations? London: Routledge, Second, to a first approximation, prices adjust, changing the incentives to individuals, and thereby their choices, to align quantities supplied and demanded. Producing less, firms need fewer workers, and thus employment falls. Hoover, Kevin D. Only stochastic shocks to the economy can cause deviations in employment from its natural level. London: Allen and Unwin, The Legacy of the New Classical Macroeconomics The new classicals profoundly changed the technical underpinnings of modern macroeconomics. Most economists, even among the new classicals, no longer accept the policy-ineffectiveness proposition. The government would be able to maintain employment above its natural level and easily manipulate the economy. Real Business Cycles: A Reader.
The combination of rational expectations and the central tenet of new classical analysis that quantity supplied equals quantity demanded ensures that systematic, pure aggregate-demand policies do not have real effects on the economy.
He argued that even without market imperfections, aggregate demand equal, in a closed economy, to consumption plus investment plus government expenditure might fall short of the aggregate productive capacity of its labor and capital plant, equipment, raw material, and infrastructure.
The systematic element of policy can be viewed, implicitly at least, as a policy rule. Firms that mistook higher market prices for higher real returns would be willing to produce more.
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